Last year we saw Treylon Burks get launched up draft boards ahead of Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams. We can overreact when we see a good situation, and it makes more sense when both players have similar draft capital. We want to react to landing spots, and we also need to factor in draft capital. Landing spots are important for early success, and early success is absolutely what we are looking for. The other two were Jeremy Shockey and Rob Gronkowski! So you should not expect a lot from a tight end in year 1, but you still want to target tight ends drafted in the top 3 rounds. Before that, you had to go all the way back to Evan Engram‘s rookie season. Over the past two decades, we have only seen four tight ends finish in the top 12. Tight ends typically do not produce year 1. The only Day 3 wideout to perform year one recently was Amon-Ra St. The hit rate drops significantly by the time you get to Round 4. We do see a higher hit rate from Round 1 to Round 2 and so forth.
The numbers for hit rate year 1 are much lower than running backs. As a result, we are seeing a higher hit rate crossed the board. Recently, we have gotten pretty spoiled with guys like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Jaylen Waddle. Until recently, we had not seen as much early success from wide receivers as we had from running backs. There are outliers like Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier. It drops more the later they are drafted. The first three rounds range from 25-50%, and this drops to less than 10% for running backs dropped in the 4th Round. Most of the top running backs in the league were drafted in Round 2 or 3. First-round running backs are becoming fewer and fewer, but we had two in this class. We have seen running backs like Saquon Barkley or Najee Harris finish top 5 as a rookie or even RB1.
The early impact drives them up draft boards even with the short shelf life of the position. Historically running back is the one position you can count on in year 1 of a dynasty. The chances of being top 12 or top 24 drop by over 50% for quarterbacks drafted in Round 2. Let’s start with quarterbacks that have about a 50% hit rate to be top 24 in Year 1.Īccording to Mike Kash, there is about a 30% hit rate on the top 12 performances. Draft capital does matter and, in most cases, is more important than the landing spot. Poor draft capital is a good indicator you need to move them down your rankings. Seeing players you like go Day 3 or even go undrafted is a crusher. SGPN Fantasy Football Discord Superflex Rookie Rankings: Risers and Fallers (SF Mock Draft included) Why Does Draft Capital Matter? Quarterbacks So let’s talk about the process and what to consider when adjusting. Navigating through all of this can be tough. We also see players that we didn’t love get some great landing spots or surprising draft capital. Many of us have rookie drafts going on right now or this week! The order in which players were picked, and the landing spots will help determine where they land in the rankings.Įvery year we love a ton of players, and after the draft, we see that list shrinks. We have been arguing for months about these players, and people are already doing victory laps. The 2023 NFL Draft is over, and we finally know where these rookies will play. Superflex Rookie Rankings: Risers and Fallers (SF Mock Draft included)
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